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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak took over as British prime minister, he became the fifth UK leader to occupy the role over a six-year span.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this signified unprecedented political turmoil. So how might we describe what is unfolding in France, now on its sixth premier in 24 months – with three in the past 10 months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s flagship pensions overhaul in exchange for opposition Socialist votes as the cost of his administration's continuation.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s number two economic power is locked in a political permacrisis, the scale of which it has not witnessed for many years – possibly not since the establishment of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there seems no easy escape.

Governing Without a Majority

Essential context: from the moment Macron called an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament separated into three opposing factions – the left, far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces twin financial emergencies: its debt-to-GDP ratio and deficit are now nearly double the EU threshold, and hard constitutional deadlines to pass a 2026 budget that starts controlling expenditures are nigh.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the president appointed his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he resigned. After only 27 days as premier, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “party loyalties” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron requested he remain for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a mission, to put it gently, filled with challenges.

Next, two of Macron’s former PMs openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and leftist LFI refused to meet Lecornu, vowing to reject any and every new government unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he appeared on television to say he believed “a path still existed” to avoid elections. The president’s office confirmed the president would appoint a new prime minister two days later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So this week – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Could he survive – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the young prime minister outlined his financial plans, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who oppose Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes proposed against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more he will meet resistance from the centre-right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and hardline-right UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 members or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, toast.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the divided parliament musters collective will to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: polls suggest nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A new prime minister would confront identical numerical challenges.

An alternative might be for Macron himself to resign. After winning the presidential election, his replacement would disband the assembly and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But that, too, is uncertain.

Polls suggest the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an odds-on chance that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

In the end, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians accept the new political reality, which is that clear majorities are a bygone phenomenon, absolute victory is obsolete, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will endure indefinitely.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the formation of ruling alliances typical across Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”