How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost lengthy war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing summit is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.

The president often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

In July, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Putin and privately urging Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Michael Patrick
Michael Patrick

Elara is a seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting strategies and statistical modeling.