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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.